Dzmitry Kruk
WP/12/04 Threats to Financial and Macroeconomic Stability in Belarus: Systemic Risk Accumulation in the Banking Sector
This paper analyzes the systemic risk in the time dimension as a threat to macroeconomic stability in Belarus.
WP/11/01 Methodology of Construction of the Composite Index of Leading Indicators for Belarus
The aim of this paper is to construct a composite index of leading indicators for Belarus as a tool for economic decision-making in real time.
PP/01/2011 Estimating the Equilibrium Exchange Rate in Belarus
The exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble has recently regained substantial attention. After serious balance-of-payments problems, the National Bank devalued eventually at the end of May 2011 the ruble versus the US-dollar by 56%. At the same time, this action has not restored order in the market, which is still not working properly.
PDP/11/01 Challenges for the Economic Policy in Belarus
The paper describes the opportunities of the economic policy of Belarus under the impact of external shocks and the formation of new risks to the national economy.
WP/10/07 The Impact of the Crisis on the Prospects for Long-Term Growth in Belarus
This study examines the impact of the crisis and the anti-crisis economic policy in Belarus on long-term growth prospects.
PP/01/10 Dollarization in Belarus: Preconditions and Perspectives of Dedollarization Policies
This paper deals with the phenomenon of dollarization that is peculiar for transition countries.
WP/09/03 Impact of the Global Economic Crisis on the Economy of Belarus
The paper presents an analysis of the influence of the crisis on foreign trade, the real sector, monetary sector, the sector of public finances in Belarus, and provides the evaluation of the government intervention taken to overcome the crisis.
PP/04/09 Perspectives and Challenges for Economic Policy in Belarus during the Global Crisis: Evidence from Macroeconometric Modelling
This paper deals with the perspectives of the development of the Belarusian economy during the global crisis and options of economic policies.
WP/08/10 Forecasting Inflation in the Context of the Transition to Inflation Targeting: the Role of the Output Gap Indicator
This paper examines the possibility of using the indicator of the output gap to forecast inflation in the context of the transition to inflation targeting regime in Belarus.
PP/08/08 Recent Developments and Impact of the International Financial Crisis on Belarus
The paper deals with the new tendencies in the global economy and its impact on the prospects for the Belarusian economy. The bankruptcy of Lehmann Brothers informed a substantial distrust at the credit market and the process of rapid demonetization of the global economy began. Furthermore, it led to expansion of the crises to the real sector, which have nothing to do but face with global recession. These created additional challenges for the Belarusian economy such as difficulties for exporters at the Russian markets, decreasing export revenues for oil, potash, ferrous metals, etc. Possible scenarios of the Belarusian producers’ competitiveness at the Russian market are emphasized in the paper. Furthermore, implications for the internal economic policy are discussed as well in the study. Alongside a longer term agenda is analyzed and possible strategic threats and perspectives for the Belarusian economy under the condition of the global financial distress is discussed.