Belarus Short-Term Economic Trends
The page contains bulletins that provide analysis and short-term forecasts of selected macroeconomic indicators. Currently it is inflation forecast (bulletin "Belarus Short-Term Economic Trends: Inflation") and analysis of the cyclical component of the real GDP (bulletin "Belarus Short-Term Economic Trends: GDP").
The bulletin "Belarus Short-Term Economic Trends: Inflation" have been publishing since October 2012. It briefly analyzes recent inflation dynamics and provides 6-months inflation forecast based on several econometric models. The forecasting methodology is described in the working paper "Short-Term Inflation Forecasting in Belarus" (available in Russian only).
The bulletin “Belarus Short-Term Economic Trends: GDP” have been publishing since March 2010. The content is based on the calculation of the composite index of leading indicators for Belarus to foresee the real GDP cycle behavior. The methodology applied to construct the leading indicators index can be found in the working paper" A composite index of leading indicators in Belarus: Methodology and techniques" (available in Russian only).
Belarus Short-Term Economic Trends: Inflation, 01/2013
According to the forecasts, we expect inflation to accelerate to 23.62% yoy in February, 23.58% yoy in April, and 23.73% yoy in June.
Belarus Short-Term Economic Trends: GDP, 01/2013
In October-November, the ILI went almost unchanged, remaining in the recovery phase. Its current dynamics do not signal about the possible future dynamics of the GDP cycle.