Исследовательский Центр ИПМ
Kasrtyčnicki Ekanamičny Forum

Belarus Short-Term Economic Trends: GDP, 01/2013

In October-November, the ILI went almost unchanged, remaining in the recovery phase. Its current dynamics do not signal about the possible future dynamics of the GDP cycle.

In November-December, the cyclical component of the GDP remained in the slowdown phase. This situation was caused by declining exports, rising imports, and a decrease in real investment in October-November. At the same time, in December the growth rate of the long-term trend of the GDP fell down to 3.48% yoy.

Diverging dynamics of the ILI and the GDP cycle in 2012 can be attributed to the structural break in GDP in January-July, strongly influenced by the exports of solvents, diluents, and lubricants.