Исследовательский Центр ИПМ
Kasrtyčnicki Ekanamičny Forum

WP/11/01 Methodology of Construction of the Composite Index of Leading Indicators for Belarus

The importance of leading indicators and composite leading indices increases substantially during the economic crisis. In these conditions, the discrepancy between economic policies and the actual situation may significantly increase the depth of a cyclical downturn and “detain” economic recovery. The aim of this paper is to construct a composite index of leading indicators for Belarus as a tool for economic decision-making in real time. To this end, it is needed to solve the task of estimating the cyclical component of the GDP in Belarus, to implement periodization of the Belarusian economic cycle, as well as to select the variables for the composite leading index that have various theoretical mechanisms of leading effect.