Low-Growth Trap: Risk Factors for Belarus
The paper focuses on the most important factors explaining the emergence of problems with economic growth and considers them with respect to Belarus. These factors include the structure and diversification of exports, as well as labor productivity. The analysis revealed that in the Belarusian export basket there was a decrease in the share of the group of goods, contributing to both increasing exports productivity and diversification. Taking into account that the complexity of the economy predetermines the type of goods that can be exported in the future, the paper examines the changes observed in the structure of the Belarussian industry value added and in its competitiveness indicators. It was revealed that in 2005-2016 in industrial structure, there was a decrease in the share of a number of products that are considered as a highly sophisticated and having great potential for diversification. Changes in the structure and technological complexity of the Belarusian industry, adversely affected its competitiveness, which is one of the determining factors of economic growth, and also impacted labor productivity. The shift-share analysis of the contribution of structural change to aggregate industrial productivity in Belarus revealed that static, and dynamic effects of changes in the technological structure was negative due to the reduction in the share of medium-high technology industries, and , in particular, manufacture of machinery and equipment. Almost all productivity growth was accounted for by within sector (grouped by technological classes) productivity, and the greatest contribution derived from low-tech industries.