Исследовательский Центр ИПМ
Kasrtyčnicki Ekanamičny Forum

Gleb Shymanovich

Asymmetric impact of external environment on economic growth of Belarus

Oil price is one of key external factors that determine macroeconomic indicators of Belarus. We find that its impact is non-linear, as its scale depends on the direction of the shock.

Progress in Business Climate Improvement in Belarus through the Prism of Surveys of Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises

Вespite a significant improvement in ease of doing business ranking and adopted legislative measures to support small and medium-sized enterprises, their role in the country’s economy has practically not changed in the recent years. Besides, according to surveys SMEs assessment of changes in business conditions became less positive in comparison to 2010.

New legal acts package on encouraging private sector development vs needs of Belarusian business: Results of the small and medium enterprises surveys

The paper compares the assessment of the business environment drawn from SME surveys with progress in the Doing Business ranking and the measures envisaged by the new package of the normative legal acts on encouraging the development of the private sector in Belarus.

Fiscal Incidence in Belarus: A Commitment to Equity Analysis

The paper employs the Commitment to Equity framework to present fiscal incidence analysis for Belarus. It reveals that fiscal policies in Belarus effectively redistribute income from the top to the bottom of the income distribution.

Towards a More Effective Implementation of State Programs in Belarus: Selected Recommendations

With this policy paper, GET Belarus continues the work we have undertaken in the first half of 2016 to support the Government of Belarus in the implementation of the new legislative framework for the State Programs.

07 december 2016 Igor PelipasGleb Shymanovich, Robert Kirchner

International linkages and external shocks: A Global VAR perspective for Belarus. Evidence from different model specifications

Belarus as a small, open economy is closely integrated into the global economy via complex commodity, trade and financial channels. The empirical investigation of the impact of different external shocks, e.g. changes in the global price of crude oil, or a recession in Belarus’ main trading partners on its main macroeconomic variables like GDP, inflation and the exchange rate is of concern to policymakers and researchers alike. In this policy study, we use a very modern and sophisticated econometric approach to investigate these issues further.

07 october 2016 Gleb Shymanovich

Small and medium-sized business development trends in Belarus

The survey results of small and medium businesses show the deterioration of enterprises’ economic situation. To a large extent this is predetermined by falling population income and it stresses the small and medium business’ orientation to demand satisfaction from the side of households.

09 august 2016 Gleb Shymanovich, Matthias Morgner, Uladzimir Kavalkin

State Programs in Belarus - Improving Design and Implementation

This Policy Paper analyses the new approach to the development and implementation of State Programs in Belarus. In the past, this state support has taken a range of other forms, including tax exemptions, discounted prices, or direct financial support. The newly adopted legislative framework for the design and implemen-tation of State Programs requires this state support now to be allocated on a competitive basis.

16 may 2016 Gleb Shymanovich

Impact of socio-economic policy changes on the position of elderly people in Belarus

Budget possibilities to support existing social obligations have reduced. The measures taken by the government to optimize social expenditures negatively affect the welfare of the elderly people while the social protection system is unable to react to the corresponding risks.

Increasing utility tariffs: social aspects

At the beginning of February the government has announced plans to increase the level of costs compensation by utility tariffs. But it's necessary to take into account that the increase affects unevenly on welfare of different households’ groups.