Исследовательский Центр ИПМ
Kasrtyčnicki Ekanamičny Forum

Asymmetric impact of external environment on economic growth of Belarus

Oil price is one of key external factors that determine forecast of macroeconomic indicators of Belarus. A broad range of literature discusses non-linear interrelation between oil price and economic growth, in particular in oil-exporting countries. It is considered that consequences of negative oil price shock are much harsher for them than advantages related to positive price shock. We find support to this hypothesis in the short-run. On contrary, in the long-run benefits from oil price increase appear to be larger than possible costs of its decrease.

Commentary is prepared under the support of the British Embassy in Minsk.