Исследовательский Центр ИПМ
Kasrtyčnicki Ekanamičny Forum

Major Macroeconomic Relationships in Belarusian Economy: the Results of Econometric Modeling

Authors: Kruk, D., Pelipas, I., Chubrik, A.

The publication analyses major macroeconomic relationships on the basis of original macroeconometric model built by the authors. The model is based on the traditional theoretical assumptions and takes into account specific features of the Belarusian economy. It includes the four sectors of the economy: real, state, monetary and external ones, and describes behavior of the respective economic actors. Correct specification of the model equations has been ensured by the study of dynamic properties of the data. Long-run relationships have been studied on the basis of cointegration analysis (two-step Engle-Granger cointegration test), while the analysis of the short-run relationships has been made on the basis of error-correction models (in case of cointegration between variables). The model has allowed making retrospective estimates of some hypothetical shocks of variables characteristic of the sectors dealt with in the model.

© IPM Research Center, 2006