Исследовательский Центр ИПМ
Kasrtyčnicki Ekanamičny Forum

Macroeconomic Forecast for Belarus: 2018–2019, №1(15), January 2018

The economic recovery outpaced the most optimistic forecasts: according to our estimates, real GDP in 2017 went up by 2.3% yoy, 3.9% yoy in 2017Q4. The unexpected impetus came from domestic demand side – fast investment and household consumption recovery in the second half of 2017.

Short-term global outlook does not anticipate any serious risks; moreover, current trends in commodities prices could bring better prospects for Russian economy and Belarusian exports. However, additional stimulus from the real depreciation is unlikely, which makes exports growth slower.

Oil exports will hardly increase considerably, as it looks like Belarusian side prefer to keep refining at the economically efficient level and receive custom duty from the unrefined crude oil (up to 6 mln t as agreed with Russian side). Additional revenues may amount up to USD 700 mln annually.

We expect real GDP growth in 2018-19 around 3% yoy with domestic demand as a main driver. Macroeconomic policies will remain balanced in order to keep inflation and imports under control: domestic demand recovery will lead to import increase and higher current account deficit.