Belarus Macroeconomic Forecast, №1(4), May 2012
Due to a positive export shock, the crucial adjustment of imports from non-CIS countries, and more active wage stimulation, we expect that the recovery in 2012 will be more rapid than previously expected. Our expectation of real GDP growth in 2012 is 4.9%, which will be driven by improvements in net exports and a relatively high growth rate of household consumption. However, the year 2012 is more likely to be an outlier in terms of economic growth, rather than the beginning of a period of sustainably high growth.
Financial stability is still considered to be an issue of concern, while high and volatile inflation expectations are an obstacle for a stable demand for national currency. Through this, the results of nominal indicators are extremely dependent on the policies of the monetary authorities.