Economic Consequences of Gas Price Increase: A Quantitative Estimate
The paper estimates the consequences of gas price hike for the Belarusian economy by employing a computable general equilibrium model. The model data are taken from the input-output tables and the 2004 national accounts. The model analyzes four scenarios differing by the degree of gas price increases as stipulated by the agreement with Gazprom made on December 31, 2006. The results of modeling show that growth of gas prices would most negatively affect chemical and petrochemical, heating and power industries. At the same time, decline in these sectors would be accompanied by redistribution of the resources mostly in favor of such sectors, as machine building, light industry and services.