Исследовательский Центр ИПМ
Kasrtyčnicki Ekanamičny Forum

Belarus Macroeconomic Forecast, №2(11), December 2015

We expect that in 2015 the Belarusian GDP will decrease by 3.7%. This will be a product of structural weaknesses, an adverse external environment and tight macroeconomic policies. This new economic environment implies contracting domestic demand and improving net exports. In 2016, the recessionary environment is likely to persist, because of permanently depressed investment demand. Decreasing employment will be one more permanent attribute of this macroeconomic development path.

We expect that the exchange rate will ensure a manageable deficit of the current account. Based on current projections about key global variables (oil price, major exchange rates), we expect the USD/BYR exchange rate to reach 18,500 by the end of 2015 and 20,000 by the end of 2016. Inflation will go down due to the contraction of domestic demand: 13.6% and 10.3% in 2015 and 2016, correspondingly. Despite relatively stable inflation, new forms of financial distress might develop in 2016 due to the issue of non-performing loans.