Исследовательский Центр ИПМ
Kasrtyčnicki Ekanamičny Forum

Belarus Macroeconomic Forecast, №1(10), June 2015

We expect that in 2015 the Belarusian GDP will decrease by 3.5%. This will be a product of structural weaknesses, an adverse external environment, and tight macroeconomic policies. This new economic environment implies contracting domestic demand and improving net exports. In 2016, a quit from recession is likely, but the economy will stagnate at best. Furthermore, a new economic and social problem – unemployment – will arise on the national agenda.

A new framework of monetary policy is likely to secure a gradual depreciation of the exchange rate, but without any persistent overhang. We expect that by the end of 2015 the USD/BYR exchange rate will be near 15,500 and 16,000 by the end of 2016. Annual average inflation is going to remain high in 2015 – 17.5%, while decelerating down to 11.4% in 2016. However, the fragility of financial markets will persist (due to problems with non-performing loans, a lack of international reserves, and volatile expectations), which increases the probability and magnitude of new shocks.